Simulation Prediction of the Number of Foreign Tourist Visits to Indonesia

Abstract

One of the main drivers of the Indonesian economy is the tourism sector. The Indonesian Ministry of Tourism targets the number of foreign tourists visiting Indonesa in 2025 to be around 14 to 16 million tourists. The fluctuating number of foreign tourist visits must be predictable to anticipate any decreases or increases in the number of visits. This allows the government to establish relevant policies regarding the infrastructure that must be prepared and the promotional strategies to be implemented. The purpose of this study is to simulate the estimated number of foreign tourists visiting Indonesia per entry point per month in the coming year using the Monte Carlo method and measure the error rate using MAPE. The simulation results showed an average growth rate in foreign tourist visits of 30.9% from air entry points, 24.2% from sea entry points, and 53.9% from land entry points in 2024. The average accuracy rate of the Monte Carlo reached 66.24%, with an error rate (MAPE) of 45%. The results of the study indicate that the Monte Carlo method proved effective in predicting trends in foreign tourist arrivals, although its accuracy still need improvement. This study provides a strategic reference for Indonesian tourism growth